A Grim Statistical History
The history of teams leading 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final is decidedly one-sided. Out of 28 such series, 27 teams have gone on to secure the championship. The lone exception occurred in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs mounted a historic comeback to defeat the Detroit Red Wings.
Of the 28 series, 20 concluded in sweeps. The Florida Panthers are attempting to sweep the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998. Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to force a Game 5 with a win in Game 4, history is still against them; 25 of those 28 series ended in no more than five games.
Despite the daunting odds, the Oilers remain hopeful.
Oilers' Current Struggles
This season, the Oilers are 0-5-0 against the Panthers. On Thursday, they showed a semblance of resilience by cutting the Panthers' lead to 4-3 with third-period goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was the Oilers' 4-1 deficit entering the third period—a must-win scenario on home ice against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
Edmonton’s downfall came during an embarrassing 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three times. After tying the game at 1-1 thanks to a breakaway goal by Warren Foegele, a turnover by Edmonton's goaltender Stuart Skinner led to a goal by Vladimir Tarasenko, assisted by Eetu Luostarinen, deflating the home crowd. Matthew Tkachuk’s forechecking pressured Darnell Nurse into a turnover that Sam Bennett capitalized on, making it 3-1. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring with a goal at 15:31, taking advantage of a 2-on-1 break.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Edmonton's mistakes have been plentiful, but their star players have struggled to find the back of the net. Secondary scorers like Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have contributed goals, but the Oilers' top playoff scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have not scored in this series.
These five also operate Edmonton’s power play, which has failed to score against Florida’s penalty kill, now 10-for-10. Entering the series, the Oilers' power play had been converting at an impressive rate of over 37%, the best in the postseason. Though McDavid has notched three assists on Edmonton’s four goals in the series, the other star players have yet to register a point in the Stanley Cup Final. McDavid is on pace to become only the second player since 1967-68 to record a point on at least half of his team’s goals in the postseason. The only other player to achieve that was Wayne Gretzky in 1988.
Taking Responsibility
Leon Draisaitl, reflecting on his performance, expressed his frustration: "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better."
Adding to the sentiment, Draisaitl noted, "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Goaltender Stuart Skinner echoed this sentiment of accountability while maintaining hope: "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Head Coach Kris Knoblauch emphasized belief over surrender: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
Knoblauch continued, "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Skinner noted the Panthers' momentum surge: "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Concluding on a determined note, Leon Draisaitl stated: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It’s a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."