The journey to assemble a fantasy basketball team that can clinch a championship is complex, demanding strategy, in-depth knowledge, and a calculated approach to risk-taking. As the new season looms, understanding player performance and reliability is paramount. The upcoming season once again raises questions and opportunities for seasoned fantasy managers to dissect.
At the heart of many draft strategies lies the consistent production from top players, particularly those not limited to the obvious first-round picks. Joel Embiid, who is projected to average more than 60 fantasy points per game, stands out after averaging 61 fantasy points per game last season. However, his durability is a concern—he has never played more than 68 games in a season and managed only 39 games last season. This could make him a high-risk, high-reward player pivotal to fantasy success.
Nikola Jokic offers a stark contrast. The reigning MVP played 79 games last season and has never dipped below 69 games in his career. This level of durability combined with stellar all-around performance makes him a safer cornerstone for any fantasy team.
LeBron James, turning 40 this season, played 71 games last season but has averaged just 52 games over the previous three seasons. Despite his age, his capacity to deliver remains high. Anthony Davis, a teammate of James, played 76 games last season, deviating significantly from his average of 44 games over the past three seasons. Davis has only played more than 70 games in consecutive seasons once in his 12-year career, making his consistency an ongoing question mark for fantasy managers.
Ja Morant, now 25 years old, missed 73 games last season due to suspension and injury. However, his statistical contributions—averaging 26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG) over the past three seasons—highlight his explosive impact. Morant's ability to stay on the court could make or break his draft value.
Kevin Durant, entering his 18th NBA season at 36 years old, played 75 games last season. As a veteran with proven scoring ability and reliability, Durant continues to be a valued asset in fantasy circles. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving’s performance is equally enticing yet fraught with inconsistency. He averaged 26.7 PPG, 49.3 field goal percentage (FG%), 39.9 three-point percentage (3P%), and 91.2 free throw percentage (FT%) over the last five seasons. Despite ranking 22nd in fantasy points per game, Irving’s 44.2 games per season average raises eyebrows, ranking him 47th in total fantasy points last season.
All eyes will be on Zion Williamson, who managed to average 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons. Yet, his track record is marred by availability issues—Williamson played only 90 out of a possible 236 regular season games during this span. Last season he played a career-high 70 games, experiencing a late-season peak with a 27.1 PPG average over a 10-game stretch. If he continues this trajectory, he could dramatically alter a fantasy season's outcome.
Kawhi Leonard also presents a conundrum. Last season, he played 68 games and ranked 27th in overall fantasy points. However, his knee issues led to missing 12 of the Clippers’ last 14 games, including the playoffs. Leonard’s health remains a key factor in his draft valuation.
The upcoming fantasy basketball season is filled with intrigue and potential. While high-profile names like Jokic and Durant offer steadiness, the variable nature of players like Embiid, Davis, Morant, and Williamson introduces layers of complexity. Managers would do well to balance these considerations as they assemble their rosters, hoping to navigate the fine line between calculated risks and reliable performers.