After a tough loss on July 19 that left the San Diego Padres teetering at a 50-50 record, the team has swung back with remarkable vigor. Now boasting a 62-52 record, the Padres are not only in the hunt for a playoff berth—they currently hold the coveted top wild-card spot in the National League (NL). Trailing the ever-dominant Los Angeles Dodgers by just four games in the NL West, the Padres also have the Arizona Diamondbacks breathing down their necks, only half a game behind.
Post All-Star Break Surge
Since the All-Star break, the Padres have been playing with a renewed sense of purpose, posting a stellar 12-3 record that includes an eye-catching +42 run differential. This resurgence has been driven by exceptional performances from key players both at the plate and on the mound.
Manny Machado has been nothing short of spectacular, hitting .347 with five doubles, four home runs, and nine RBIs over his last 12 games. Xander Bogaerts has been equally impressive, boasting a .420 batting average and a .551 slugging percentage since July 12. Meanwhile, Jurickson Profar has almost been unstoppable, recording a .993 OPS with five homers, 12 RBIs, and 13 runs in just 15 games.
The contributions don't stop there. Young Jackson Merrill has chipped in significantly, hitting .309 including seven doubles, and tallying 10 RBIs and 11 runs since the break.
Dominant Pitching
The Padres’ pitching staff has also risen to the occasion. In the second half of the season, Padres starters have posted an 8-2 record with a sterling 2.61 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Dylan Cease has been in a league of his own, flaunting a 0.31 ERA and 38 strikeouts over his last five starts. Michael King has also been formidable, with a 1.76 ERA during the same span. Martin Perez contributed significantly in his first start with the team, allowing just one run over six innings and striking out seven.
Padres relievers have also done their part, with a collective 2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. Robert Suarez hasn't let a single runner cross home plate since July 5, and Jason Adam has delivered three scoreless innings since joining the squad. Even Tanner Scott, despite allowing a home run in his debut, has struck out four in his 2 1/3 innings.
Key Injuries and Returns
On the injury front, the Padres are eagerly awaiting the return of Fernando Tatis Jr., who has been sidelined since June due to a stress reaction in his femur. However, the team received some promising news regarding Joe Musgrove. The right-hander threw 41 pitches in his recent rehab assignment on Sunday, and Padres manager Mike Shildt indicated there's a “high probability” that Musgrove’s next start will be with the big-league club.
Playoff Projections
Looking ahead, the Padres have a relatively favorable schedule with their remaining opponents holding a combined winning percentage of .481. Current projections are optimistic about their playoff chances, giving them an 80.2% probability of making it to the postseason. However, winning the NL West will be a taller order. SportsLine gives them a 15.5% chance, FanGraphs places it slightly lower at 14.5%, and PECOTA is the most conservative, offering just a 6.6% chance of overtaking the Dodgers.
With their current trajectory, the Padres have positioned themselves as formidable contenders. If they can maintain this level of play, the postseason appears not just as a possibility, but perhaps an expectation. The final stretch promises to be filled with high-stakes baseball and potentially historic moments for the San Diego Padres and their fans.