The Minnesota Twins faced a tough defeat at Progressive Field, blowing a three-run lead to fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. The defeat was sealed in dramatic fashion when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. This loss adds to a troubling trend for the Twins, who have now lost 18 of their last 27 games.
Pablo López put the situation into stark perspective: "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow." Indeed, the pill has been bitter, with the Twins' postseason odds dropping from 95.4% on September 5 to 76.4% now, according to FanGraphs.
Offensively, the Twins have struggled mightily. In 12 of their last 27 games, they've failed to score more than three runs. During this stretch, the team is hitting .236, with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. When the bases are empty, they’ve managed a mere .272 average, ranking them fourth worst in the league in such situations. Rocco Baldelli echoed the need for offensive improvement: "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Max Kepler's return is anticipated, offering a glimmer of hope for a struggling offense. Nonetheless, Baldelli recognizes the broader challenge: "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
The bullpen, which had maintained a 3.84 ERA and was ranked tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41) over the first 123 games, has been a shadow of itself recently. Over the last 27 games, the bullpen's ERA has inflated to 5.47, with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added. Griffin Jax, who gave up the decisive home run to Manzardo, lamented, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The grueling schedule has not done the Twins any favors. The team has played 17 games in the last 18 days, further stretching an already stressed bullpen. The rest of the rotation has struggled as well, posting a 6.07 ERA while averaging 4.38 innings per start over the same 27-game span.
The Twins’ precarious hold on the third AL wild-card spot has been a point of concern. Their lead has diminished to just 1 1/2 games. Competitors like the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are hot on their heels, each just two games back. It helps that the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, but every game is now critical.
In an attempt to bolster their pitching staff, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, offers some versatility. Twins’ executive Derek Falvey commented on the acquisition: "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
The bright spots are few and far between in this bleak landscape. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month. But as Baldelli insists, the entire team needs to deliver consistently: "We have to put nine innings together."
The resilience of this Twins team is about to be tested like never before. With critical games on the horizon and every inning becoming a high-stakes affair, there is little room for error. As the season enters its crucial stretch, it remains to be seen if the Twins can navigate these turbulent waters and secure their postseason berth.