This afternoon, the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, with the first pitch set for 2:20 PM ET. Both teams come into this matchup with compelling storylines, setting the stage for what promises to be a thrilling contest.
The Diamondbacks, slight money line favorites at -106, have had an impressive run recently. Coming off a closely contested 8-7 loss to the Blue Jays where they squandered a seven-run lead, Arizona is looking to bounce back. They have shown resilience on the road, evidenced by a 4-1 record in their last five away games. Boasting a 49-48 overall record, the Diamondbacks are second in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by seven games. Recent performances have fueled optimism, with the team riding a two-game road winning streak.
On the offensive side, the Diamondbacks have been formidable, averaging five runs per game—second-best in MLB. Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been leading the charge with 22 and 19 homers respectively, making significant contributions to Arizona's offensive dynamism. However, their defense and pitching have been areas requiring consistency.
Pitching Matchup: Steele vs. Nelson
Justin Steele will be on the mound for the Cubs. Steele's season has been a tale of highs and lows. With a 2-3 record and a 2.71 ERA, he has shown he can be a reliable starter. Steele has delivered eight quality starts this season, including a recent standout performance where he pitched seven scoreless innings. His home ERA stands at 3.16, a bit higher than his road ERA of 2.96, suggesting he might feel slightly more pressure pitching at Wrigley Field. Nevertheless, Steele's presence is reassuring for the Cubs as they look to neutralize Arizona's potent offense. Projections indicate Steele could record six strikeouts today.
Opposing him will be Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Nelson enters the game with a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA. His WHIP of 1.42 and a batting average against of .296 indicate vulnerabilities that the Cubs' hitters will aim to exploit. However, Nelson has shown resilience, making six straight starts without giving up more than three earned runs. Projections forecast Nelson might have four strikeouts in today's game, though he is anticipated to concede more runs than Steele.
Cubs' Recent Surge
The Cubs have been on an upward trajectory, winning seven of their last ten games. They hold a 47-51 overall record and are fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers. At home, they've been particularly strong, posting a 4-1 record in their last five games at Wrigley Field. The Cubs' resilience is further highlighted by their 9-5 record as home underdogs this year.
Offensively, the Cubs average 4.2 runs per game with a team batting average of .235. Nico Hoerner has been a key contributor, hitting .378 over his last nine games. Christopher Morel has also been in fine form, with three homers in his last eight games. These players' performances could prove pivotal in today's game.
High-Scoring Trend
The game has an over/under line of 7.5 runs, a threshold that both teams have consistently surpassed. An impressive 84.5% of Diamondbacks games exceed this 7.5 run mark, along with 67.3% of Cubs games. The Cubs have a particularly strong 12-10 record when the over/under is set at 7.5, while the Diamondbacks stand at 6-4 under the same condition. Both teams are also on three-game "over" streaks, suggesting today's matchup could be a high-scoring affair.
Fans can anticipate an exciting game with plenty of action on both sides. The Diamondbacks are predicted to edge out a narrow victory, with a final scoreline of 5-4. As the teams take the field, much will depend on the performances of Steele and Nelson, the batting prowess of key hitters, and each team's ability to maintain composure under pressure. The narrative of this afternoon's clash will undoubtedly add another intriguing chapter to the seasons of both the Diamondbacks and Cubs.