The 2024 MLB season is nearing its end, and with just over five and a half weeks left in play, the quest for the Cy Young award is heating up. Voters are tasked with ranking pitchers 1-5 on their ballots this year, and the competition is as fierce as it's ever been.
Leading the Pack: Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers is putting up a compelling case for the award. Skubal leads the majors in ERA and ERA+, topping the American League in strikeouts, FIP, and strikeout rate. His record of 14-4 is a testament to a standout season, especially considering the Tigers' overall struggles, as evidenced by their 44-56 record in games where Skubal isn't the starter. His commanding lead in Baseball Reference's and FanGraphs' version of WAR further highlights his dominance on the mound.
In addition to setting a new career high in innings pitched, Skubal has taken his last turn on normal rest, underscoring his durability and consistency throughout the season. As the weeks wind down, his performance continues to be a beacon of hope for Tigers fans amidst a challenging year.
Strong Contenders
However, Skubal is not without competition. Seth Lugo of the Padres has also been impressive, pitching 166 2/3 innings with a 14-7 record. While his 3.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are commendable, Lugo's recent form has taken a dip, posting a 5.24 ERA over his last seven starts. Such inconsistency could potentially affect his standing in the Cy Young race.
Logan Gilbert of the Mariners is another name in the mix, boasting a 2.96 ERA and leading the league in WHIP at 0.88. He is second only to Lugo in innings pitched, despite the Mariners' roller-coaster season. After holding a ten-game lead in June, the team has dramatically stumbled, which might impact Gilbert's chances for the award.
Corbin Burnes of the Brewers can't be overlooked either. With a 12-5 record, a 3.10 ERA, and 144 strikeouts in 153 2/3 innings, Burnes has been a reliable arm for Milwaukee. However, his recent struggles—posting a 9.00 ERA in his three starts this month—raise questions about his finish this season.
Standout Performances
Emmanuel Clase has been nearly untouchable for the Guardians with 37 saves out of 40 opportunities, a minuscule 0.63 ERA, and a 0.66 WHIP. His performance as a closer has been nothing short of extraordinary, but relievers often face an uphill battle in Cy Young discussions dominated by starting pitchers.
Other pitchers like Framber Valdez (13-5 record, 3.20 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 137 2/3 innings) and Chris Sale, who leads the league in wins, strikeouts, FIP, strikeout rate, and FanGraphs' WAR but lacks innings pitched compared to other contenders, are also making strong cases. Sale’s dominance in selective metrics keeps him in the conversation despite the innings gap.
Logan Webb leads the league with 164 2/3 innings pitched, carrying an 11-8 record with a 3.17 ERA. His reliability and workload merit recognition. The Phillies’ Zack Wheeler, boasting a 12-5 record, 2.72 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 162 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings, also stands as a formidable candidate.
Emerging Talents
Paul Skenes has been a revelation, with a 7-2 record, a 2.30 ERA, and 121 strikeouts in 98 innings, contributing significantly with a 4.0 WAR. Hunter Greene of the Reds, despite an elbow injury, has managed a 9-4 record with a 2.83 ERA and 162 strikeouts in 143 1/3 innings, although leading the majors in hit batsmen might be a blemish on an otherwise strong season.
Ronel Blanco threw a no-hitter in his first outing, compiling a 9-6 record with a 2.89 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 134 innings. Meanwhile, Reynaldo López, with a 2.06 ERA in 104 2/3 innings, adds another layer of intrigue, showcasing the depth of pitching talent in the league.
As we approach the final stretch of the season, the race for the Cy Young award promises to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. With several pitchers displaying exceptional skills and resilience, it remains to be seen who will emerge as the ultimate winner. Each candidate brings something unique to the table, making this an exciting time for baseball enthusiasts and voters alike.